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		<title>Financial Chaos Continues as The Bear Rages On!!!</title>
		<link>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/10/13/financial-chaos-continues-as-the-bear-rages-on/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Oct 2008 05:59:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cardinalcommodities</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[WHICH WAY THIS MARKET IS HEADED        As you can see from the charts above we are witnessing never-before-seen market action—it is like climbing the tallest tree during a hurricane—it’s quite a ride if you live to tell about it!   Friday was an all time record for volume at 19.6 billion shares [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditiesman.wordpress.com&amp;blog=4718788&amp;post=96&amp;subd=commoditiesman&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:10px;margin-right:10px;" align="center"><span style="color:#000080;font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight:700;line-height:115%;"><a href="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/ursus_spelaeus1.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-92" title="ursus_spelaeus1" src="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/ursus_spelaeus1.png?w=299&#038;h=263" alt="" width="299" height="263" /></a>WHICH WAY THIS MARKET IS HEADED</span></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<div></div>
<p><span style="font-family:Arial;"></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><img src="http://www.cashflowheaven.com/Charts/SPX-10-12-08.gif" border="0" alt="" width="495" height="358" /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><img src="http://www.cashflowheaven.com/Charts/Nasdaq-10-12-08.gif" border="0" alt="" width="495" height="362" /></p>
<div><span style="font-family:Arial;"> </span></div>
<p><span style="font-family:Arial;"><font face="Arial"><font face="Arial"><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;"> As you can see from the charts above we are witnessing never-before-seen market action—it is like climbing the tallest tree during a hurricane—it’s quite a ride if you live to tell about it!</span></span></p>
<p></font></font></span><font face="Arial"> </p>
<p></font></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">Friday was an all time record for volume at 19.6 billion shares across all markets. Because of the rebound advancing to declining volume was 2:3 and not a clear lopsided capitulation event. Thursday was a massive 1:13 in favor of decliners and could have been the perfect setup for a capitulation event on Friday—but it didn’t happen—which means we probably have lower lows to come. That said we could still see a tradable rebound next week—it’s just that it’s a good bet that the rebound will fail.</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">Friday&#8217;s 1,018-point range on the Dow was an all-time record. In percentage terms it was the worst week in Dow history— worse than both the 1987 and the 1929 crashes. The Dow lost -18.15% for the week and at the low it was down -3601 points or -31% in just the last three weeks. Friday&#8217;s opening dip hit a low of 7882 and a level not seen since March of 2003.</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">Believe it or not there is a guy out there that was trading the last time things got this hairy. Irving Kahn is the 102-year-old chairman of Kahn Brothers, a New York investment firm. Kahn, who has been profiled in Barron&#8217;s, is one of the few professional investors who not only remembers the 1929 market crash but who sold short prior to that famed downturn. He thinks stocks generally look attractive at these valuations but he&#8217;d avoid those &#8220;that had a bubble in them.&#8221;  </span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">Amazing. To be alive and have a sharp mind at 102 has to be a record in itself—more power to you Irving!</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">However just like the crash in ’29 as dramatic as last week’s action was the fundamentals tells us we&#8217;re only in the early stages of this meltdown. A gigantic tsunami of stock redemptions and forced liquidations is hitting the market&#8211;and it’s not over yet. </span></span><span style="font-family:Arial;"><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">Unlike 1987, where the U.S. markets crashed on failed portfolio insurance schemes (long stocks and short stock futures), this crash is a redemption crash of hedge funds and mutual funds caused by forced margin selling. Unlike 1987, the stock market does not have many market makers to put their money at risk on these sell-offs&#8211;ninety percent of stocks are being traded electronically without a human middleman. </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Arial;"> </span><span style="line-height:115%;">The forced liquidation was extremely evident in the markets this past week. In the first 20 minutes of the futures market Friday crude prices fell -$5 on 10 times the average volume. It was clearly a massive position dump by major funds. When the equity markets opened any stock with a high stock price was crushed. Exxon (XOM) dropped another $10 to $56 and this was on top of a -$9 drop on Thursday. The same was true for Chevron and Conoco. Google lost $20 intraday before rebounding to close positive. Heck even ‘safe haven’ gold lost -94 intraday before rebounding at the close.  </span><span style="line-height:115%;">The size and scale of redemptions is what is making this sell off different than anything that has gone before. In 1987, hedge funds had $100 billion, or so, and mutual funds less than $1 trillion in stock funds. Before the crash started last week, hedge funds had $2 trillion and mutual funds $5.6 trillion in stock funds. That is 20 times more hedge fund money and five times more mutual fund money subject to forced liquidation.</span><span style="line-height:115%;">Shareholders took $43.3 billion from stock funds and $8.8 billion from bond funds in the week ended Oct. 8, according to data compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research. The exodus followed $72.3 billion of outflows in September, the most in a single month ever.</span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">With the market falling so hard so fast, we face the real potential of a huge bear market rally that could be triggered at any time. The G8 is pulling out every trick in the book to reverse the course of this out-of-control crisis even as you read this and if the markets buy it that snap-back rally could start this week.</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">But the carnage is far from over because the economy has only begun to feel the pressure of a world-wide slowdown. This global recession will take world GDP growth under 2% to 3%, and a G8 global recession will cut 3% to 4% off the developed world GDP. That contraction has to be priced into stocks—in other words $70 per share in earnings on the S&amp;P 500 versus the $94 now estimated by Wall Street </span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">It&#8217;s only when we get earnings in-line with reality, a better handle on who exactly owes what in the $50 trillion credit default swaps still outstanding, and some significant relief in credit markets that we’ll see a sustainable rally—and that could take awhile.</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">The big problem is that it really does take money to make the world go ‘round and in spite of a new bail-out plan announced ever fifteen minutes nobody beside the government wants to lend—and it’s dramatically affecting the business world. </span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">Micron reported this past week that many of their customers are facing a cutoff of capital as bank funding dries up—customers can’t even pay for the chips they’ve already received and now Micron is having to lay-off 2800 people. </span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">American Express said on Friday that 18% of small businesses were in danger of failing due to a sudden lack of financing. A survey out Friday showed that banks making loans had dropped by -60% over the last six months and were at levels not seen since the late 70s&#8212;thirty years ago! Money is drying up at a faster rate than ever before in this crisis and it’s no wonder the heads of nations met this weekend for a world-wide bail-out.</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">In addition to business financing evaporating individuals are feeling the crunch as well. Countrywide notified one million customers last week that their home equity line of credit had been canceled. Despite the bailout Washington Mutual is also notifying customers that they will not have access to any unused credit on their cards or home equity loans. If you had a card with $10,000 in credit and a $4000 balance then your new credit line is $4000 with no more credit available.</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">With two-thirds of the US economy dependent on the consumer we’ve only seen the tip of the economic downturn. A GM car dealer in the business for 30 years reported on Friday that business was down 50% from August levels because he could not get financing for customers and shoppers even if they did want to commit to a big debt on a car in this economy.</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">This is not an average bear market but a bear caused by the collapse of the global financial system so this one holds the potential to be much more severe. There have been 12 bear markets since 1890. An average bear market falls -33.8% but the worst went to -60%. October 10th was the one-year anniversary of the market high in 2007 at 14167 on the Dow. Over the last 12 months the Dow has declined -39.6% to Friday&#8217;s close at 8551. On an average basis we should be near a bottom but the cause of the problem has not been fixed. Investors typically come off the sidelines before the economy recovers but nearly everyone believes the economy has fallen off a cliff over the last month—and the economic reports coming out this week should confirm it. </span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">We are far from an economic bottom and that suggests there will be lower lows ahead. October is known as the bear killer month because of the number of bear market bottoms in October and we could very easily see a rebound—but the key is to use it as a shorting opportunity because the majority of the economic damage has yet to be felt. </span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">Even though there is going to be some rough sledding ahead for the economy there is one group that is doing very well right now, and will probably continue to—and the good news is you are in that group!  Bloomberg ran an article this week reporting that the same credit-market rout that sent stocks to the steepest loss in two decades is also making it the best year ever for options traders. </span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">The plunge in the markets has driven the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a measure of how much options cost, to the highest level in its 18-year history. The all-time high in the VIX meant investors paid 2 1/2 times more for S&amp;P 500 options than they did in 2007, based on its average level last year. The measure, calculated from the prices paid for S&amp;P 500 options, has exceeded 30 for 16 consecutive days, the longest streak since 2002. </span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">September&#8217;s market gyrations sent trading of options on U.S. stocks, indexes and exchange-traded funds to an all-time high of 375 million contracts, according to the Chicago-based Options Clearing Corp. Volume was almost double the figure from a year earlier. </span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">&#8220;People are nervous and they want protection for their portfolio, so they&#8217;ll pay a premium,&#8221; said Adam Stern, who oversees more than $1 billion at AM Investment Partners, a New York-based hedge fund that invests in options. Fortunately we’ve been the recipients of some of that newly rich premium as we’ve sold out of our positions in the past few weeks—and there will be more of the same dead ahead.</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">This coming week looks to be plenty wild as the big earnings numbers start to be released—we’ll see earnings from the major tech leaders and a few financials. Intel reports on Tuesday followed by Ebay, IBM and GOOG. Key financial reporting will be JPM, WFC, MER, C and COF. It’s doubtful anyone will beat estimates and we are probably going to see quite a few companies miss their targets.</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">We’ve already got a pretty good indication with the company that has widely been considered a proxy for the entire economy—General Electric. GE reported earnings on Friday that fell -22%. The earnings of 43 cents hit GE&#8217;s own lowered forecast and they blamed the drop on its struggling finance division. Even GE has had to raise capital by selling $15 billion in stock and an additional $3 billion in preferred shares to Warren Buffett. This could be a story we see repeated in various forms quite frequently coming right up.</span></span><span style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span style="line-height:115%;">That said the short selling ban has been lifted which means we could see a short-covering rally this week if the latest bail-out plans get any traction—Get ready to GO SHORT ON ANY BIG RALLY i will keep you alert on entries .. Good Trades All</span></span></p>
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		<title>% Rates To Rise &#8211; Borrow What You Can!!!</title>
		<link>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/10/02/rates-to-rise-borrow-what-you-can/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 06:12:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cardinalcommodities</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The dollar is in some serious trouble right now and the US is about to go into a swirling riptide of economic chaos.  The credit crisis is freezing up the borrowing of money and will eventually will lead to hear interest rates. Interest rates are a reflection of supply and demand , the more people [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditiesman.wordpress.com&amp;blog=4718788&amp;post=79&amp;subd=commoditiesman&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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<p>The dollar is in some serious trouble right now and the US is about to go into a swirling riptide of economic chaos.  The credit crisis is freezing up the borrowing of money and will eventually will lead to hear interest rates. Interest rates are a reflection of supply and demand , the more people that want to borow and the less people that want to loan means pay up on rates, not nly will this lead to higher rates but it will mean a weaker dollar or buying power . How do we make money off of this?  The Eurodollar futures market is the rates at which you receive interest on your money in the bank , so by selling Short the Euro  dollar futures contracts you are basically borrowing money at the current rate that the bank is willing to pay depositors. This is the European bank rate not the US rates. Lets borrow a half a million dollars worth of money and SELL 5 DEC 09 Eurodollar Futures contract which are trading at 96.70 this is equal to 100-96.70=3.30% for about a year and 3 months worth of time as rates climb every one % rate point pays out $2500 or on 5 positions $12500 so if rates go to 5.30 and the Eurodollar drops to 94.70 then we are winning $25000, I will buy the 5 DEC 09 EuroDollar Calls OPTIONS  to protect my loan at a strike price of 97.50 or 2.5% on the loan rate. This will act as insurance and will cost us 15 pts at $25 a pt times 5 positions or around $1875  in money and will limit our risk to  $12500 on the trade. We can always adjust the position later and lower our loan costs , This is a longer term trade and I believe will be profitable , by buying this insurance we will be borrowing the money at a cost basis of 3.45%. I will keep you posted on what to do with the position as we start to move in either way.  I love our positions in the Dow Jones Options we are holding and looking sweet as the BAILOUT program is only a band-aid on a much bigger problem . Hold steady on the Long Auzzie $ and Short Yen Futures positions as well as our Dow JONES Option Positions. Rates are on the rise borrow what you can &#8230;  Please if you read this and dont understand leave a comment or contact me&#8230;..Good Trades All</p>
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		<title>Can You Follow Me Here?  I&#8217;m $$$$$$</title>
		<link>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/10/01/can-you-follow-me-here-im/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/10/01/can-you-follow-me-here-im/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 05:55:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cardinalcommodities</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dow jones]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[curency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[selling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[silver]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stocks | Tagged buying]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/?p=73</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I wanted to go over the trade recommendations Ive made since I started this blog and advise you on the current open positions we are holding.  I will use an example of trading 1 unit which would require around 10k in the account. First the bad news , one Gold futures trade that lost around $900. [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditiesman.wordpress.com&amp;blog=4718788&amp;post=73&amp;subd=commoditiesman&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wanted to go over the trade recommendations Ive made since I started this blog and advise you on the current open positions we are holding.  I will use an example of trading 1 unit which would require around 10k in the account.<a href="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/cash_money_dollars_1055596_o1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-76" title="cash_money_dollars_1055596_o1" src="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/cash_money_dollars_1055596_o1.jpg?w=300&#038;h=300" alt="" width="300" height="300" /></a> First the bad news , one Gold futures trade that lost around $900. The option trades on the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGES options positions would have seen the following results.  On the first NOVEMBER set of option trades we sold a 11500 call for $3500 and bought the 11800 call for $1500 which resulted in a credit of $2000, with that $2000 we bought the 11300 November DOW puts  and 3 days later we closed out the 11500 call for $400 which resulted in a PROFIT of $1600. We also closed out the 11300 November Dow puts for $10000 for a profit of $8000. The next move was  after I called the bottom in my post&#8221; dont be short here&#8221; we stayed with the 11800 call so after the rally back up we resold the November 11500 Dow Jones Call again for $2000 and re-bought the 11300 November Dow Jones put option for  $2500. This left us short the market again. Then in my post &#8220;cautiously bullish&#8221; we closed out the 11500 Dow call for $500 this was a profit of of $2000 and we sold the 10500 put for $6000. So our open positions are this&#8230;.. We own the 11300 November Dow Jones  puts for $2500 and sold the 10500 November Dow Jones puts for $6000 this leaves us a  credit of $3500 and the potential for another $8000. This is called a BEAR PUT DEBIT SPREAD although due to my impecable timing we end up with a credit instead of a debit. We also still own the November 11800 Call option straight out. So at this point we are still cautiously BULLISH based on our postions with a net profit in the bank of  $14500, our open postions value is around $5000 so our total account value at this time would be our original $10000 plus $14500 plus our open position value of around $5000, bringing our account up to $28500 including our Gold Futures loss.. minus fees. Not bad for 2 weeks worth of trading . Where do we go from here?  Im going to stay with the positons I have and continue to look for this market to rally back up for this week, on a hard dip to around 11000 or under I will come out with a new recommendation to sell the 11300 November puts we own and roll them down to the 10600 November Dow puts but lets wait til we see what happens til then over all i would say we are in fine shape and hold the course . I like the dollar short here tonite and I would be looking to start buying the Auzzie dollar and sell the Jap Yen against it on the futures . I think the commodities have seen enough of a correction for now and the Auzzie dollar is a commodity based currency . The Jap Yen should weaken against the other currencies due to low rates and slow economy there. If you dont understand any of this or need clarification please comment or contact me so I can explain it to you. Good Trades All and Happy New Year to all the Jewish people out there:)&#8230;</p>
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		<title>Cautiously Bullish &#8230; Dow Jones Short Term</title>
		<link>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/29/cautiously-bullish-dow-jones-short-term/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/29/cautiously-bullish-dow-jones-short-term/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Sep 2008 02:19:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cardinalcommodities</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/?p=67</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well Im back for another week of excitement and fun. Lets start off by me saying that Im sorry I haven&#8217;t written about the markets for a week but Im here to tell you that Fridays market reversal from the huge Gap down on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages futures contracts to have this market [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditiesman.wordpress.com&amp;blog=4718788&amp;post=67&amp;subd=commoditiesman&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/503528_balloon1.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-70 alignleft" title="503528_balloon1" src="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/503528_balloon1.jpg?w=300&#038;h=199" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a>Well Im back for another week of excitement and fun.  Lets start off by me saying that Im sorry I haven&#8217;t written about the markets for a week but Im here to tell you that Fridays market reversal from the huge Gap down on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages futures contracts to have this market close up tells me we are going to Rally Up this week,  look for the 11300 =11400 area for resistance , But I would not be shocked to see 11700 by weeks end so Ill take a LONG Options Positions by Selling the 10500 puts for November and by buying the 11500 calls for November . This should be a wash on money ayou will collect around 3200 for the puts and spend around the same for the calls . i will keep you posted on when to make adjustments. This bailout the government is doing is eventually going to lead to the collapse of the US currency as we know it but for now I will not fight the tape and roll with it . Dollar is being bid up tonite and should hold through the morning so Gold prices will continue to be soft for a bit longer here Hold off on getting Long any Metals for now. Part of this is because rates are going to increase as we print more money and beg borrowers globally for loans and money . Investors may start to loosen up a bit and look for some god long term values on some stocks . Longer term this should be the last rally we see for awhile and im eventually looking for the Dow Jones to head to around 8000 before elections&#8230;Good Trades All..</p>
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		<title>MY CRYSTAL BALL !!! IS IT ON???- YES</title>
		<link>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/19/my-crystal-ball-is-it-on-yes/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/19/my-crystal-ball-is-it-on-yes/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Sep 2008 07:04:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cardinalcommodities</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/?p=60</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well what can I say? I nailed it just like I had Today&#8217;s paper yesterday.  I told you we had good support around 10500 give or take 50pts and the low of the day was 10459 in the cash DOW JONES. The ensuing rally was a combination of selling that had dried up and some [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditiesman.wordpress.com&amp;blog=4718788&amp;post=60&amp;subd=commoditiesman&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/glass_image_future_220643_tn.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-62 alignleft" title="glass_image_future_220643_tn" src="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/glass_image_future_220643_tn.jpg?w=109&#038;h=72" alt="" width="109" height="72" /></a>Well what can I say? I nailed it just like I had Today&#8217;s paper yesterday.  I told you we had good support around 10500 give or take 50pts and the low of the day was 10459 in the cash DOW JONES. The ensuing rally was a combination of selling that had dried up and some new buying , but has anything really changed ? Sure Merrill Lynch is gone. Can you believe that? ..unreal . The feds are very tricky as they bailout or steal companies. Will this eventually lead us to having control over our own social security money so we can put it into stocks?  So let&#8217;s just review what happened this week: First on Monday the stock market crashes 504 pts on a weekends worth of bad news, a small bounce for Tuesday then another crasher on Wednesday due to AIG problems. The TV and media are blasting out bad news like crazy, then the FED doesn&#8217;t move rates and  by now every ones freaking out and selling everything in sight. Hedge funds get short before the rules change  and the selling dries up so like a rubber band, the market shoots back up and ignores the slowing economy, slumping and dead RE Industry BAD AND RISING UNEMPLOYMENT AND WEAK RETAIL SPENDING , dollar sold off a bit, because the cash went into GOLD then GOLD moves up to 925 and reverses So now the public is stuck again at the top as Gold reverses and the dollar gains strenghth , because we didn&#8217;t lower rates and probably will see HIGHER rates before lower because interest rates are really affected by supply and demand of borrowers, thus a higher rate means a stronger dollar. I mentioned I loved the foreign currencies short and as of this writing the dollar is sharply higher in overnite trade as is the STOCK INDEX&#8217;S . I will give you some option trades to do over the weekend. For Friday, the DOW JONES has a 96 percent chance of closing lower then it did on Thursday, so I would be a seller as I think this new fresh good news will be short-lived . The best place to get short the Dow would be around 11400. Since we own the 11800 NOV DOW calls still, I would sell the 11500 NOV calls again for around 12-1500 each , I would wait to buy the puts until Tuesday of next week for the DOW. Look for BAD NEWS OFF THE UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS BUT IT WOULDN&#8217;T SURPRISE ME IF THE MARKET SHRUGS THAT OFF AND RALLIES NEAR 11350 OR SO UP THERE IS ALL AIR GO SHORT if it gets there. AND buy the 11300 -11000 Nov PUTS AGAIN. GOOD trades all..</p>
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		<title>YOU&#8217;RE to Late to the Party!! Don&#8217;t Be Short in HERE!!!</title>
		<link>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/18/your-to-late-to-the-party-dont-be-short-in-here/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/18/your-to-late-to-the-party-dont-be-short-in-here/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 05:29:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cardinalcommodities</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/?p=51</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So we broke into new lows on the Dow Jones industrial average today for the week and closed near 10600. The taxpayers &#8211;you and I&#8211; should not have to pay for GREEDY companies mistakes because they over leveraged themselves. We are losing our lifestyle and are getting hit by being able to have more freedom due [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditiesman.wordpress.com&amp;blog=4718788&amp;post=51&amp;subd=commoditiesman&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lunar-rocket-launch-458479-o.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-54 alignleft" title="lunar-rocket-launch-458479-o" src="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lunar-rocket-launch-458479-o.jpg?w=276&#038;h=299" alt="" width="276" height="299" /></a>So we broke into new lows on the Dow Jones industrial average today for the week and closed near 10600. The taxpayers &#8211;you and I&#8211; should not have to pay for GREEDY companies mistakes because they over leveraged themselves. We are losing our lifestyle and are getting hit by being able to have more freedom due to tax increase which are inevitable in some form or fashion for the future. The hedge funds that still are active are now short the stocks and it looks like the sideline money headed into GOLD. Good thing I used a stop there and only lost 900 as Gold climbed today almost 90 dollars an ounce. I doubt it will stay up here as I see an ending short term to this downside on the stock market .. reason being is in order for this market to move lower quickly you will need some more really bad news and beating this dead horse  the loans, banks, and bailouts is already built into the current price of the DOW JONES so Im going to cash in and close my open option investments on Thursday and bank a nice 700 percent return on my investment recommendation, this will include my small loss on the gold trade. Sell your dow puts off and close out the 11500 calls you sold. Im going to keep the NOV 11800 calls just for kicks and look for a rally so I can use them again for insurance later. On Thursday we have a 97 percent chance of closing higher then today&#8217;s close and if the Stock Market GAPS down, margin liquidation will occur about 30 minutes after the open the reports are not due out till Friday and  will be negative until then I think you will see a strong rally on the Dow going into the close on Thursday.  There is some really good support around 10575 down to 10450 so for just the day I&#8217;ll take a stab at BUYING the Dow JONES futures contracts if we are sharply lower after the first 30 minutes of trade or if the market is flat then we have probably seen the  end of selling for a SHORT period of time&#8211; like maybe 2-3 days. I love the short foreign  currencies and will give you some option investment ideas over the weekend . I cant believe the Fed buckled and loaned AIG money. How weak and confused and scared are they? .. Good Trades All .. Look for the Dow to hold the 10500 area give or take 50 pts.</p>
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		<title>Someone -Dial 911- STOP the BLEEDING &#8211; NOT!!!</title>
		<link>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/17/someone-dial-911-stop-the-bleeding-not/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/17/someone-dial-911-stop-the-bleeding-not/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 03:31:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cardinalcommodities</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dow jones]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[hedge funds]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[buying]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[futures]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[panic selling]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/?p=42</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today&#8217;s market activity was again truly predictable , after a lower opening on the AIG news we rallied up to resistance then sold off in the after market. Finally the Fed made an unanimous decision to leave the rates unchanged as I thought they should this caused the market to rally and left the fed in a [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditiesman.wordpress.com&amp;blog=4718788&amp;post=42&amp;subd=commoditiesman&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/painting_heart_death_992141_o.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-45 alignleft" title="painting_heart_death_992141_o" src="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/painting_heart_death_992141_o.jpg?w=225&#038;h=300" alt="" width="225" height="300" /></a>Today&#8217;s market activity was again truly predictable , after a lower opening on the AIG news we rallied up to resistance then sold off in the after market. Finally the Fed made an unanimous decision to leave the rates unchanged as I thought they should this caused the market to rally and left the fed in a position to lower rates if they need to on a surprise to help the market rally after it gets murdered or to stop the bleeding. Nothing has changed at all everyones still in trouble and real estate stocks bonds and commodities will continue their sell-off . Today we saw new lows near 10700 and close over 11000 or a hair under, as of this writing we are about 120 pts lower and I suspect a weak day on Wednesday . The Dow Jones Industrial average of stocks had a 97 percent chance of closing higher today due to yesterdays sell off. Watch out for more grinding liquidation and much lower prices to come over the next 30 days and we should take out or close near the low of today or lower by Friday if it takes that long, usually after a Fed meeting the market drops hard the next day. On our option investment we stripped out plenty of money and now own the Nov 10800 puts for free with some credit and all our money plus 250 percent profit and are short the 11500 Nov call options  and own the 11800 Nov call options  for protection on the 11500 you should of sold . you banked a healthy profit and should be in the money again by Friday on the 10800 puts . Stay short the gold futures at 785 with stops over today&#8217;s high of 794 that&#8217;s a 900 dollar risk for the Dec futures contract. The fact that we made lower lows and lower highs tells me this market is still on the verge of about another 1000 point move down over the coming weeks ahead. This weeks unemployment numbers and retail sales numbers are not going to show any improvement and should show more economic disappointment for the economy. Ill have some new recommendations in the currency markets coming up near the end of the weak but by the Fed keeping rates stable and not changing their attitude towards inflation this should favor more dollar straight and lower prices across the board . I think Gold has the potential to drop into the low 600s or high 500s Crude will eventually get under 70 IMHO before starting up again The Bleeding ain&#8217;t over yet til everyone liquidates and tries to figure out what to do . Simple investors and non qualified investors don&#8217;t know what to do because they have been brainwashed into buying and don&#8217;t know how to trade. Just buy and hold Hope and pray..  Good Trades All&#8230;</p>
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		<title>Ugliness, Fear and Greed &#8211; A Bad Combo !!!</title>
		<link>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/16/ugliness-fear-and-greed-a-bad-combo/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/16/ugliness-fear-and-greed-a-bad-combo/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Sep 2008 05:00:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cardinalcommodities</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude oil]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[market conditions]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/?p=30</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well what can I say ? I guess my 27 yrs of commodity trading is paying off &#8230;. again.  This is no shock to me that the banks and brokerage firms are going down and out of business. It&#8217;s only based on one thing: GREED.  So too much greed led to fear and now confusion [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditiesman.wordpress.com&amp;blog=4718788&amp;post=30&amp;subd=commoditiesman&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/scarygirl.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-40" title="scarygirl" src="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/scarygirl.jpg?w=203&#038;h=300" alt="" width="203" height="300" /></a>Well what can I say ? I guess my 27 yrs of commodity trading is paying off &#8230;. again.  This is no shock to me that the banks and brokerage firms are going down and out of business. It&#8217;s only based on one thing: GREED.  So too much greed led to fear and now confusion and the old American way out&#8211; Bankruptcy or sell low. Todays drop was the largest one-day drop since 9/11.  I want to laugh on my way to the bank but I dont know if any will be open.  I hope you took my advice on the Dow Jones Options Stock Investment because it&#8217;s currently up over 500 percent on 3 days, and I mentioned  going short GOLD as of right now and its late  Monday Gold has dropped about 20 dollars since I said to sell it . The safe haven will be the US dollar and interest US backed bills and notes for now short term until the dust settles and money starts to get reinvested.  We are still in a liquidation phase and AIG will be the next one to be gone. After that its Washington Mutual and HSBC so be ready for much more downside and take the puts you bought strip out money and roll them to the Nov  10800 puts same quanity for now. This will net you a 250 percent return  on top of your original investment for now with the rest of the money still riding on the down side. The fed is in a hard hold and no bail out mode right now. Panic selling and capitualation soon coming.  Watch for the dollar to be weak for the rest  of the week. Fed is confused so although a rate cute would be suicidal and wouldnt surprise me, I dont expect it. By not cutting, it could stabilize us for now and leave the Fed room for a surprise cut later. Its ugly and getting worse.  Good Trades All</p>
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		<title>CRUMBlLIA and Confusion .. It&#8217;s HAMMER TIME!!!</title>
		<link>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/15/crumbllia-and-confusion-its-hammer-time/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/15/crumbllia-and-confusion-its-hammer-time/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Sep 2008 04:31:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cardinalcommodities</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[buying]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/?p=19</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fridays market action seemed  bullish .. one of the many tricks the funds and feds use to suck you in when the bottoms about to fall out. Its called distribution&#8230; that&#8217;s where the market moves up and then the big sellers step in so the small guy gets stuck holding high prices&#8230; There was no [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditiesman.wordpress.com&amp;blog=4718788&amp;post=19&amp;subd=commoditiesman&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/222086_mallet.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-22 alignleft" title="222086_mallet" src="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/222086_mallet.jpg?w=300&#038;h=225" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a>Fridays market action seemed  bullish .. one of the many tricks the funds and feds use to suck you in when the bottoms about to fall out. Its called distribution&#8230; that&#8217;s where the market moves up and then the big sellers step in so the small guy gets stuck holding high prices&#8230; There was no problem getting filled on my option investment positions that I recommended on the Dow Jones Stock Index&#8217;s.  Now the gov&#8217;t isnt bailing out anyone else. Merril Lynch just got sold for $44 billion to Bank of America and Lehman Bros is filing Bankruptcy. I&#8217;d say thats not real good news at all. I can see that the brokerage firms are going down, the banks are buying them and the Feds work closely with the banks, so cut out some players and more profit and regulation for the govt .. good luck getting a loan unless you have unreal collateral or stellar credit.  The Fed meets this week and rumors are swirling&#8211; there may be a rate cut in the works. Thats about the worst thing they could do at this point.. the funniest or saddest situation is they don&#8217;t know what to do and that&#8217;s what I think will happen ..no rate move at all, or a meaningless, small rate cut. I favor no rate cut at all. It wont do anything anyway because you can&#8217;t borrow, so who cares?  The Stock Market is down around 300 pts or so and it&#8217;s Sunday night. The option investment I told you to do is already at this point about 300 percent in profits in 48 hours&#8211;not bad if i do say so myself&#8230;. but this is just the beginning of more big downside to come. More liquidations and panic selling could see an all time biggest down-day ever on Monday if this keeps rolling. Regardless, we are headed south for alot more downside in the Dow Jones and in the economy in general. I see Gold and Silver have moved up so I&#8217;d be selling into a rally here ..usually a full moon will mark a high or low in Gold so watch this technique. Why it works, I don&#8217;t know. But it does. Could be a nice GAP trade in the morning on the Dow Jones Stock Index, but I wouldn&#8217;t do it. Looks like the start of the Free fall to me&#8230; How do you like how I picked the timing dates in my earlier blog for this to start? Stay posted&#8211;I&#8217;ll be adding and adjusting positions to really clean up on this move.. GOOD Trades All.</p>
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		<title>Head for the Exits&#8230; We Are Close To the Free Fall!!!</title>
		<link>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/12/head-for-the-exits-we-are-close-to-the-free-fall/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/2008/09/12/head-for-the-exits-we-are-close-to-the-free-fall/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Sep 2008 04:54:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>cardinalcommodities</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dow jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hedge funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[silver]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[buying]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[curency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[selling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditiesman.wordpress.com/?p=11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today&#8217;s market activity was not surprising at all to me. We broke down under 11000 on the Dow Jones commodity futures contracts as well as the cash Dow,  early and the selling dried up and short covering came in , not new buying. I have targeted Sept. 12-15Th for the final top on the Dow [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditiesman.wordpress.com&amp;blog=4718788&amp;post=11&amp;subd=commoditiesman&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/paracute.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-17" title="paracute" src="http://commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/paracute.jpg?w=310&#038;h=231" alt="" width="310" height="231" /></a>Today&#8217;s market activity was not surprising at all to me. We broke down under 11000 on the Dow Jones commodity futures contracts as well as the cash Dow,  early and the selling dried up and short covering came in , not new buying. I have targeted Sept. 12-15Th for the final top on the Dow Jones; after that it&#8217;s Kadee, bar the door. The positions I would recommend you invest in  would be to sell some Nov. 11500 Dow Jones calls options and buy the 11800 Dow Jones Call options for protection, you will risk around 3 thousand per position but should collect in around 12-15 hundred. Take that money and buy as many straight out 11000-11300 Nov. put options as you can afford.  You should be in the money within a week.. I&#8217;ll keep you posted in case we need to adjust these positions.</p>
<p>The dollar rallied again today on more liquidation and money into cash as it gets ready to be remitted to clients or just sit in cash. When interest rates were real low&#8211;around 2 or lower on the fed Rate&#8211;the govt flooded the world by printing money, this made it easy to borrow and that&#8217;s why prices rose on everything. The problem is, you cant just dilute a currency without causing a problem later  and that&#8217;s what we will be dealing with for years to come&#8211; its called Inflation. So dont think for a second that commodities and prices are going down. We are in a long term early stages of some of the largest price moves you will see for the next 10-14 years in most commodities . Very early stages of Major Bull Commodity markets to unfold,  but let this liquidation phase occur for about 3-6 more weeks and I&#8217;ll show you how to postion in bets using leverage, pyramiding and using protection against margin calls.. More to come over the weekend &#8230; Gold  will be be the main barometer, yet still more liquidation to come. Hold tight for proper entries refrain from the temptation of buying  .. lower prices still yet to come &#8230;.Get the Dow Jones Commodity option positions ..for more info on the Dow options go to www.cbot.com look up Dow and if you want to learn about Gaps read how to trade the GAP Setup under the Dow Jones info.. Good trading All&#8230;</p>
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