Cautiously Bullish … Dow Jones Short Term

Well Im back for another week of excitement and fun. Lets start off by me saying that Im sorry I haven’t written about the markets for a week but Im here to tell you that Fridays market reversal from the huge Gap down on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages futures contracts to have this market close up tells me we are going to Rally Up this week, look for the 11300 =11400 area for resistance , But I would not be shocked to see 11700 by weeks end so Ill take a LONG Options Positions by Selling the 10500 puts for November and by buying the 11500 calls for November . This should be a wash on money ayou will collect around 3200 for the puts and spend around the same for the calls . i will keep you posted on when to make adjustments. This bailout the government is doing is eventually going to lead to the collapse of the US currency as we know it but for now I will not fight the tape and roll with it . Dollar is being bid up tonite and should hold through the morning so Gold prices will continue to be soft for a bit longer here Hold off on getting Long any Metals for now. Part of this is because rates are going to increase as we print more money and beg borrowers globally for loans and money . Investors may start to loosen up a bit and look for some god long term values on some stocks . Longer term this should be the last rally we see for awhile and im eventually looking for the Dow Jones to head to around 8000 before elections…Good Trades All..

MY CRYSTAL BALL !!! IS IT ON???- YES

Well what can I say? I nailed it just like I had Today’s paper yesterday.  I told you we had good support around 10500 give or take 50pts and the low of the day was 10459 in the cash DOW JONES. The ensuing rally was a combination of selling that had dried up and some new buying , but has anything really changed ? Sure Merrill Lynch is gone. Can you believe that? ..unreal . The feds are very tricky as they bailout or steal companies. Will this eventually lead us to having control over our own social security money so we can put it into stocks?  So let’s just review what happened this week: First on Monday the stock market crashes 504 pts on a weekends worth of bad news, a small bounce for Tuesday then another crasher on Wednesday due to AIG problems. The TV and media are blasting out bad news like crazy, then the FED doesn’t move rates and  by now every ones freaking out and selling everything in sight. Hedge funds get short before the rules change  and the selling dries up so like a rubber band, the market shoots back up and ignores the slowing economy, slumping and dead RE Industry BAD AND RISING UNEMPLOYMENT AND WEAK RETAIL SPENDING , dollar sold off a bit, because the cash went into GOLD then GOLD moves up to 925 and reverses So now the public is stuck again at the top as Gold reverses and the dollar gains strenghth , because we didn’t lower rates and probably will see HIGHER rates before lower because interest rates are really affected by supply and demand of borrowers, thus a higher rate means a stronger dollar. I mentioned I loved the foreign currencies short and as of this writing the dollar is sharply higher in overnite trade as is the STOCK INDEX’S . I will give you some option trades to do over the weekend. For Friday, the DOW JONES has a 96 percent chance of closing lower then it did on Thursday, so I would be a seller as I think this new fresh good news will be short-lived . The best place to get short the Dow would be around 11400. Since we own the 11800 NOV DOW calls still, I would sell the 11500 NOV calls again for around 12-1500 each , I would wait to buy the puts until Tuesday of next week for the DOW. Look for BAD NEWS OFF THE UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS BUT IT WOULDN’T SURPRISE ME IF THE MARKET SHRUGS THAT OFF AND RALLIES NEAR 11350 OR SO UP THERE IS ALL AIR GO SHORT if it gets there. AND buy the 11300 -11000 Nov PUTS AGAIN. GOOD trades all..

YOU’RE to Late to the Party!! Don’t Be Short in HERE!!!

So we broke into new lows on the Dow Jones industrial average today for the week and closed near 10600. The taxpayers –you and I– should not have to pay for GREEDY companies mistakes because they over leveraged themselves. We are losing our lifestyle and are getting hit by being able to have more freedom due to tax increase which are inevitable in some form or fashion for the future. The hedge funds that still are active are now short the stocks and it looks like the sideline money headed into GOLD. Good thing I used a stop there and only lost 900 as Gold climbed today almost 90 dollars an ounce. I doubt it will stay up here as I see an ending short term to this downside on the stock market .. reason being is in order for this market to move lower quickly you will need some more really bad news and beating this dead horse  the loans, banks, and bailouts is already built into the current price of the DOW JONES so Im going to cash in and close my open option investments on Thursday and bank a nice 700 percent return on my investment recommendation, this will include my small loss on the gold trade. Sell your dow puts off and close out the 11500 calls you sold. Im going to keep the NOV 11800 calls just for kicks and look for a rally so I can use them again for insurance later. On Thursday we have a 97 percent chance of closing higher then today’s close and if the Stock Market GAPS down, margin liquidation will occur about 30 minutes after the open the reports are not due out till Friday and  will be negative until then I think you will see a strong rally on the Dow going into the close on Thursday.  There is some really good support around 10575 down to 10450 so for just the day I’ll take a stab at BUYING the Dow JONES futures contracts if we are sharply lower after the first 30 minutes of trade or if the market is flat then we have probably seen the  end of selling for a SHORT period of time– like maybe 2-3 days. I love the short foreign  currencies and will give you some option investment ideas over the weekend . I cant believe the Fed buckled and loaned AIG money. How weak and confused and scared are they? .. Good Trades All .. Look for the Dow to hold the 10500 area give or take 50 pts.

Someone -Dial 911- STOP the BLEEDING – NOT!!!

Today’s market activity was again truly predictable , after a lower opening on the AIG news we rallied up to resistance then sold off in the after market. Finally the Fed made an unanimous decision to leave the rates unchanged as I thought they should this caused the market to rally and left the fed in a position to lower rates if they need to on a surprise to help the market rally after it gets murdered or to stop the bleeding. Nothing has changed at all everyones still in trouble and real estate stocks bonds and commodities will continue their sell-off . Today we saw new lows near 10700 and close over 11000 or a hair under, as of this writing we are about 120 pts lower and I suspect a weak day on Wednesday . The Dow Jones Industrial average of stocks had a 97 percent chance of closing higher today due to yesterdays sell off. Watch out for more grinding liquidation and much lower prices to come over the next 30 days and we should take out or close near the low of today or lower by Friday if it takes that long, usually after a Fed meeting the market drops hard the next day. On our option investment we stripped out plenty of money and now own the Nov 10800 puts for free with some credit and all our money plus 250 percent profit and are short the 11500 Nov call options  and own the 11800 Nov call options  for protection on the 11500 you should of sold . you banked a healthy profit and should be in the money again by Friday on the 10800 puts . Stay short the gold futures at 785 with stops over today’s high of 794 that’s a 900 dollar risk for the Dec futures contract. The fact that we made lower lows and lower highs tells me this market is still on the verge of about another 1000 point move down over the coming weeks ahead. This weeks unemployment numbers and retail sales numbers are not going to show any improvement and should show more economic disappointment for the economy. Ill have some new recommendations in the currency markets coming up near the end of the weak but by the Fed keeping rates stable and not changing their attitude towards inflation this should favor more dollar straight and lower prices across the board . I think Gold has the potential to drop into the low 600s or high 500s Crude will eventually get under 70 IMHO before starting up again The Bleeding ain’t over yet til everyone liquidates and tries to figure out what to do . Simple investors and non qualified investors don’t know what to do because they have been brainwashed into buying and don’t know how to trade. Just buy and hold Hope and pray..  Good Trades All…

Ugliness, Fear and Greed – A Bad Combo !!!

Well what can I say ? I guess my 27 yrs of commodity trading is paying off …. again.  This is no shock to me that the banks and brokerage firms are going down and out of business. It’s only based on one thing: GREED.  So too much greed led to fear and now confusion and the old American way out– Bankruptcy or sell low. Todays drop was the largest one-day drop since 9/11.  I want to laugh on my way to the bank but I dont know if any will be open.  I hope you took my advice on the Dow Jones Options Stock Investment because it’s currently up over 500 percent on 3 days, and I mentioned  going short GOLD as of right now and its late  Monday Gold has dropped about 20 dollars since I said to sell it . The safe haven will be the US dollar and interest US backed bills and notes for now short term until the dust settles and money starts to get reinvested.  We are still in a liquidation phase and AIG will be the next one to be gone. After that its Washington Mutual and HSBC so be ready for much more downside and take the puts you bought strip out money and roll them to the Nov  10800 puts same quanity for now. This will net you a 250 percent return  on top of your original investment for now with the rest of the money still riding on the down side. The fed is in a hard hold and no bail out mode right now. Panic selling and capitualation soon coming.  Watch for the dollar to be weak for the rest  of the week. Fed is confused so although a rate cute would be suicidal and wouldnt surprise me, I dont expect it. By not cutting, it could stabilize us for now and leave the Fed room for a surprise cut later. Its ugly and getting worse.  Good Trades All

CRUMBlLIA and Confusion .. It’s HAMMER TIME!!!

Fridays market action seemed  bullish .. one of the many tricks the funds and feds use to suck you in when the bottoms about to fall out. Its called distribution… that’s where the market moves up and then the big sellers step in so the small guy gets stuck holding high prices… There was no problem getting filled on my option investment positions that I recommended on the Dow Jones Stock Index’s.  Now the gov’t isnt bailing out anyone else. Merril Lynch just got sold for $44 billion to Bank of America and Lehman Bros is filing Bankruptcy. I’d say thats not real good news at all. I can see that the brokerage firms are going down, the banks are buying them and the Feds work closely with the banks, so cut out some players and more profit and regulation for the govt .. good luck getting a loan unless you have unreal collateral or stellar credit.  The Fed meets this week and rumors are swirling– there may be a rate cut in the works. Thats about the worst thing they could do at this point.. the funniest or saddest situation is they don’t know what to do and that’s what I think will happen ..no rate move at all, or a meaningless, small rate cut. I favor no rate cut at all. It wont do anything anyway because you can’t borrow, so who cares?  The Stock Market is down around 300 pts or so and it’s Sunday night. The option investment I told you to do is already at this point about 300 percent in profits in 48 hours–not bad if i do say so myself…. but this is just the beginning of more big downside to come. More liquidations and panic selling could see an all time biggest down-day ever on Monday if this keeps rolling. Regardless, we are headed south for alot more downside in the Dow Jones and in the economy in general. I see Gold and Silver have moved up so I’d be selling into a rally here ..usually a full moon will mark a high or low in Gold so watch this technique. Why it works, I don’t know. But it does. Could be a nice GAP trade in the morning on the Dow Jones Stock Index, but I wouldn’t do it. Looks like the start of the Free fall to me… How do you like how I picked the timing dates in my earlier blog for this to start? Stay posted–I’ll be adding and adjusting positions to really clean up on this move.. GOOD Trades All.

Head for the Exits… We Are Close To the Free Fall!!!

Today’s market activity was not surprising at all to me. We broke down under 11000 on the Dow Jones commodity futures contracts as well as the cash Dow,  early and the selling dried up and short covering came in , not new buying. I have targeted Sept. 12-15Th for the final top on the Dow Jones; after that it’s Kadee, bar the door. The positions I would recommend you invest in  would be to sell some Nov. 11500 Dow Jones calls options and buy the 11800 Dow Jones Call options for protection, you will risk around 3 thousand per position but should collect in around 12-15 hundred. Take that money and buy as many straight out 11000-11300 Nov. put options as you can afford.  You should be in the money within a week.. I’ll keep you posted in case we need to adjust these positions.

The dollar rallied again today on more liquidation and money into cash as it gets ready to be remitted to clients or just sit in cash. When interest rates were real low–around 2 or lower on the fed Rate–the govt flooded the world by printing money, this made it easy to borrow and that’s why prices rose on everything. The problem is, you cant just dilute a currency without causing a problem later  and that’s what we will be dealing with for years to come– its called Inflation. So dont think for a second that commodities and prices are going down. We are in a long term early stages of some of the largest price moves you will see for the next 10-14 years in most commodities . Very early stages of Major Bull Commodity markets to unfold,  but let this liquidation phase occur for about 3-6 more weeks and I’ll show you how to postion in bets using leverage, pyramiding and using protection against margin calls.. More to come over the weekend … Gold  will be be the main barometer, yet still more liquidation to come. Hold tight for proper entries refrain from the temptation of buying  .. lower prices still yet to come ….Get the Dow Jones Commodity option positions ..for more info on the Dow options go to www.cbot.com look up Dow and if you want to learn about Gaps read how to trade the GAP Setup under the Dow Jones info.. Good trading All…

The Unraveling of the Stock Market !!!

The stock markets here in the US are about to go through a major crash. I’m talking about an unraveling freefall that has already started to unfold.  The biggest joke is the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac deal; our government couldnt back up anything. They’re broke. But what the heck, why not take on another 5 trillion in debt? We have more trees to make money with, am I right?  

About the market conditions: What’s unfolding here is and I’m talking about right now!! The hedge funds have about $2 trillion worth of assets and are going through a liquidation phase, so they will sell everything they have and are holding at any price that they can get, which is why Gold and Silver and commodities in general have been dropping, because its in their portfolios along with all kinds of other diversified positions in Stocks, Bonds, R.E…. you name it they got it and its all going for sale A.S.AP.  The dollar is going up because that’s the currency they are getting in exchange for their sales, which gets remitted back to the account holder–case closed, hedge fund closed. Got it? Now the customer is back in cash trying to figure out what to do with the money, in the meantime prices are still dropping because everything needs to be sold.

In my humble opinion, the Dow Jones  is about 2000pts over priced at 11300. It can bounce, but probably not much past 11700. It’s just all air up there and can’t hold. Get ready for a swirling riptide of economic chaos and follow me as i show you how to try and cash in.